Saturday, September 20, 2008

Why Obama's 50 state Strategy Was A Bluff

Team McCain saw through Obama's 50 state bluff.

In strategy literature there is a concept of credible commitment when your competitor makes a claim. In Obama's case, they never followed through on the 50 state strategy. They never committed funds to execute on their strategy.

A simple back of the envelope calculation can reveal the amount of money Obama needs to raise in order to execute the strategy. Obama's FEC filings on his fund raising efforts showed that he was not going to make the numbers, leading one to conclude that his campaign will not go through with the strategy.

Now after the conventions, it is clear that they never intended to execute their 50 state strategy because they are focuing their resources on the traditional swing states.

Other Democrats are openly mocking of Mr Obama's much vaunted "50-state strategy", in which he spends money campaigning throughout the US in the hope that it will force Mr McCain to divert funds to previously safe states. Critics say a utopian belief in bringing the nation together has trumped the cold electoral calculus that is necessary to triumph in November.

Doug Schoen, a former pollster for Bill Clinton, last week declared it insanity not to concentrate resources on the swing states.

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