Axis of Upheaval - Obama's Perfect Storm Brewing in Foreign Policy

Obama plans to reduce military spending and focus on domestic issues. But the economic slow down will ignite radicals in areas of the globe that will test Obama's decision.

From Niall Ferguson is Laurence A. Tisch professor of history at Harvard University

The resources available for policing the world are certain to be reduced for the foreseeable future. That will be especially true if foreign investors start demanding higher yields on the bonds they buy from the United States or simply begin dumping dollars in exchange for other currencies.

Economic volatility, plus ethnic disintegration, plus an empire in decline: That combination is about the most lethal in geopolitics. We now have all three. The age of upheaval starts now.

Barack Obama now faces a much larger and potentially more troubling axis—an axis of upheaval. This axis has at least nine members, and quite possibly more. What unites them is not so much their wicked intentions as their instability, which the global financial crisis only makes worse every day. Unfortunately, that same crisis is making it far from easy for the United States to respond to this new “grave and growing danger.”

Iran, meanwhile, continues to support both Hamas and its Shiite counterpart in Lebanon, Hezbollah, and to pursue an alleged nuclear weapons program that Israelis legitimately see as a threat to their very existence.

The democratic governments in Kabul and Islamabad are two of the weakest anywhere. Among the biggest risks the world faces this year is that one or both will break down amid escalating violence. Once again, the economic crisis is playing a crucial role. Pakistan’s small but politically powerful middle class has been slammed by the collapse of the country’s stock market. Meanwhile, a rising proportion of the country’s huge population of young men are staring unemployment in the face. It is not a recipe for political stability.

This club is anything but exclusive. Candidate members include Indonesia, Thailand, and Turkey, where there are already signs that the economic crisis is exacerbating domestic political conflicts. And let us not forget the plague of piracy in Somalia, the renewed civil war in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the continuing violence in Sudan’s Darfur region, and the heart of darkness that is Zimbabwe under President Robert Mugabe. The axis of upheaval has many members. And it’s a fairly safe bet that the roster will grow even longer this year.

Russia Spends Heavily on Defese - Why Obama Won't Cut US Defense Spending

Clearly Obama's talk of cutting defense spending will not happen. Russia has been spending heavily on its defense and with China doing the same the US has to keep its military spending at current levels at best.

That means Obama will have a hard time reallocating the tax dollars for this spending programs.

From EurasiaNet:

An analysis of Russia’s state spending shows that Vladimir Putin’s Kremlin is taking the country in a dangerous direction, girding for a new Cold War while neglecting the domestic infrastructure. Military and security spending is so lopsided in Russia that the country’s cash cow - the energy sector - is being starved of funds.

According to figures recently released by the State Committee for Statistics, Russia’s revenue for the first half of 2008 amounted to almost 4.4 trillion rubles, or, at the current exchange rate, about $176.5 billion. Expenditures totaled almost 3 trillion rubles, or $120.9 billion. Overall, the Russian government is projected to spend almost 7 trillion rubles, or $278.6 billion, under the full-year 2008 budget.